14th Colloquium
Geo-economic Risk in a Fractured World
- 6 November 2025
In this event, leading thinkers, practitioners, and decision-makers examined the complex forces reshaping global stability.
As shifting power dynamics, regional conflicts, and economic interdependence create new vulnerabilities, understanding geo-economic risk has never been more critical.
This colloquium provided a platform to explore emerging challenges, assess strategic implications, and consider pathways toward resilience in an increasingly uncertain world.
Brief:
Background
In today’s fractured geoeconomic landscape, organisations face risks that extend well beyond traditional operational concerns. Conflicts, trade wars, sanctions, and shifting alliances disrupt supply chains, destabilise markets, and amplify cyber and reputational threats. For boards and executives, this demands the integration of geoeconomic risk into enterprise-wide risk management frameworks, with stronger internal controls and governance processes to safeguard continuity and resilience.
At the strategic level, geoeconomics increasingly shapes organisational choices about markets, partnerships, and innovation. Strategy can no longer be based on linear forecasts, it must account for multiple possible futures shaped by uncertainty and volatility. Organisations that embed scenario planning, diversification, and strategic resilience into their decision-making will be better positioned to adapt to shifting conditions and capture opportunities in disrupted markets.
Financial resource stewardship is equally challenged. Volatile currencies, sudden capital restrictions, and unpredictable taxation or sanction regimes threaten balance sheets and financial sustainability. Effective stewardship requires stress-testing, hedging, liquidity buffers, and enhanced transparency to reassure investors and stakeholders. Financial leaders are called to not only protect organisational assets but also demonstrate prudent governance of resources in times of geoeconomic turbulence.
Against this backdrop, governance and leadership are critical. Boards must ensure that risk controls, strategy, and financial stewardship are aligned to support long-term value creation. This means building a culture of awareness, integrating geoeconomic intelligence into board deliberations, and equipping leaders to act decisively in moments of uncertainty.
Short 8-minute Explainer
Courte explication de 8 minutes
Explicação curta de 8 minutos
Key questions answered during the Colloquium
A clear-eyed view of the macro landscape is the foundational step for any effective risk management or strategic planning. To navigate the current environment, leaders must first understand its defining features. Expert speakers defined a world no longer governed by frictionless globalization, but by a new set of interconnected tensions, threats, and misalignments.
The key characteristics of this “fractured world” include:
- Increased Trade Tensions and Weaponization of Tariffs: Professor Mervyn King highlighted the dramatic shift from a globalized, free-trading world to a “very restricted situation.” The weaponizing of tariffs has led directly to increased costs for international trade and a higher cost of living globally.
- Geopolitical Conflict and Instability: The sudden emergence of major conflicts has profound consequences for international conglomerates. Professor King cited three major wars—in Ukraine, Sudan, and the Hamas/Israel conflict—as stark reminders that geopolitical instability is no longer a distant threat but an immediate business reality.
- Shifting Global Power Dynamics: According to Michelle Mullen, the world is undergoing a “profound transformation” in its global order. This is not driven by a single event but by shifting power dynamics, regional instability, and a notable divergence in the alignment of developed economies.
- Misalignment of Policy Objectives: Trade policies are increasingly being used to achieve non-trade objectives, such as advancing climate change or human rights agendas. Professor King noted that this tendency “skews issues,” adding a layer of complexity to international business decisions which were once based primarily on economic and sustainability lines.
- Rise of Pervasive Cyber Threats: The nature of cybercrime has evolved into a significant geoeconomic risk. Professor King warned that cybercriminals are now engaged not just in ransomware but also in “regime change,” a development that can have a huge and direct impact on international trade and corporate stability.
Understanding this new reality is foundational; embedding it into corporate governance is the critical next step.
In a fractured world, reactive risk management is a liability. Boards must proactively transform governance from a compliance function into a strategic asset for navigating volatility and capitalizing on disruption.
The consensus among the colloquium’s experts was that boards must lead a series of critical strategic shifts in their approach:
- Integrate Geoeconomic Risk as a Cornerstone Both Professor King and Dr. Reuel Khosa emphasized that geopolitical impacts can no longer be an afterthought. Geoeconomic risk “must be integrated…as a cornerstone into enterprisewide risk management frameworks.” Dr. Khosa stressed that this is not merely a compliance task but the “sacred duty of boards and executive management.”
- Adopt Forward-Looking, Scenario-Based Planning Traditional risk models that rely on historical data are dangerously inadequate in an era of unprecedented volatility. Michelle Mullen argued that such models are “not going to be sufficient,” calling for “forward-looking, scenario-based approaches that account for political and economic volatility.” Lee White powerfully reinforced this, stating that geopolitical scenario planning is now a “must,” not something that is discretionary.
- Cultivate a Holistic, Not Siloed, Perspective Paul Munter critiqued the common corporate practice of assessing risks in isolated silos, where separate groups handle climate, cyber, and financial controls without integration. He argued that for risk management to be effective, it must be “approached in a holistic way” as an “integrated activity taken at the organizational level.” A fractured world requires a unified response.
- Balance the Pursuit of Opportunity with Risk Management In a landscape dominated by threats, it is easy for leadership to become purely defensive. Lee White offered a crucial counter-perspective, stating that “good leaders need the courage…to demonstrate the pursuit of opportunities, not just always about the management of risk.” This represents a vital mindset shift, echoed by Dr. Khosa’s view of disruption not as a threat, but as a “crucible for innovation.”
Adapting these frameworks is not an end in itself, but a means to the ultimate goal of building deep, sustainable organizational resilience.
The concept of business resilience has evolved far beyond simply “bouncing back” from adversity. In today’s fractured world, true resilience is a proactive and dynamic capability that enables an organization to absorb shocks, sustain performance through disruption, and strategically position itself to thrive amidst uncertainty.
As defined by Michelle Mullen, modern resilience is “the ability to absorb the shocks, to sustain operations and disruption because companies have prepared for it, and being very well positioned overall to seize any opportunities as they arise.” This definition moves the concept from a reactive defense mechanism to a proactive strategic advantage.
Hallmarks of a Resilient Business
Based on the insights shared, a truly resilient business exhibits the following attributes:
- Fluidity, Reinvention, and Adaptation (Michelle Mullen) – The capacity to pivot business models in response to market shifts.
- Proactive Positioning over Reactive Adaptation (Dr. Reuel Khosa) – Anticipating disruptions and shaping the environment, not just responding to it.
- Diversified Supply Chains and Localized Production (Professor King, Dr. Reuel Khosa) – Reducing single-point-of-failure risk and increasing operational self-sufficiency.
- Strategic Mindset and Integrated Thinking (Michelle Mullen) – Connecting geopolitical trends, risk management, and opportunity-seeking into a single, cohesive strategy.
Fostering a Culture of Awareness
Resilience is not an accident; it is a deliberate strategic choice. Dr. Khosa powerfully stated that a culture of awareness “is created by choice, not by chance.” This requires geoeconomic intelligence to be “woven into the fabric of board deliberations.” It must actively inform corporate strategy, shape internal policies, and guide capital allocation decisions. Without this cultural foundation, resilience remains a theoretical goal rather than a practical reality.
Building this resilience requires the expertise and vigilance of key professions that act as the bedrock of corporate integrity and foresight.
In times of intense volatility, the roles of professional functions become more critical than ever. The accountancy and internal audit professions provide the foundational stability, trust, and foresight that organizations need to navigate uncertainty and thrive. They serve as a critical check on whether an organization’s internal focus aligns with its most significant external threats.
The Role of the Accountancy Profession
Lee White described the accountancy profession as a “foundation of strength and stability” in a fractured world. Its mandate is evolving to meet modern challenges across three key areas:
- Connectivity: Accountants possess an enterprise-wide perspective, enabling them to “connect risks that might otherwise seem isolated,” from supply chain vulnerabilities to cyber threats and financial exposures.
- Trust: The profession serves to “anchor confidence among investors, employees, governments and broader society” through its commitment to strong governance, sound assurance, and reliable, decision-useful reporting.
- Transparency: Accountants provide clarity amid uncertainty by “translating complexity into insight,” empowering boards and stakeholders to make informed, forward-looking decisions.
The Role of the Internal Audit Profession
Stacy Schabel, drawing on the “Risk in Focus” report from the Institute of Internal Auditors, highlighted a critical gap between perceived organizational risks and the focus of internal audit plans. This data reveals where internal audit must evolve to provide greater value.
Global Risk Priorities vs. Audit Focus
Perceived Top Risks | Discrepancy in Audit Priority |
Digital Disruption (incl. AI) | Rated 16 points lower as an audit priority |
Human Capital | Rated 14 points lower as an audit priority |
Macroeconomic Uncertainty | Rated 27 points lower as an audit priority |
Stacey explained two key implications of this discrepancy:
- Internal audit teams must improve their capacity to provide assurance over complex, emerging areas like artificial intelligence.
- A combined assurance model is essential. Internal audit is not always the best or only function to provide assurance; effective governance requires a coordinated approach with other risk and compliance teams.
The specialized contributions of these professions are vital, but all leaders must look ahead to address the fundamental trends and ethical duties that will define long-term success.
Beyond immediate geopolitical shocks, a series of powerful, long-term currents are reshaping the global business landscape. Sustainable success requires leaders to navigate these structural “hard trends” while anchoring their organizations in the non-negotiable foundation of ethical stewardship.
Navigating Key ‘Hard Trends’
Michelle Mullen identified three “hard trends” that are not going away and must be factored into long-term strategic planning:
- Shifting Demographics: Developed economies are experiencing population decline, while regions like Africa and India are seeing rapid growth. This demographic shift is creating new potential “skills hubs” and presenting both opportunities and challenges related to global talent and skills migration.
- Accelerating Technology: Artificial intelligence represents a profound dual-edged sword. While it holds immense potential to drive productivity, it also raises unanswered questions around governance, ethics, and its long-term impact on the future talent pipeline and the development of professional judgment.
- Fragmented Regulation: The global regulatory landscape, particularly for AI and sustainability, is becoming increasingly complex and fragmented. This variation creates significant uncertainty and compliance costs for businesses operating across multiple jurisdictions.
Upholding Ethical Stewardship
In a fractured and uncertain world, ethics and integrity are not soft values but hard strategic assets. As Michelle Mullen noted, they must remain the “north star” for leaders. This sentiment was echoed throughout the colloquium:
- Dr. Reuel Khosa invoked the African philosophy of “Ubuntu,” reminding leaders that “in a fractured world, interdependence is not weakness. It is wisdom.” This principle calls for a shift from a purely profit-driven motive to one that champions a broader purpose.
- The importance of leadership and legacy was a recurring theme. Bruce Thomas and Subrata Basu both highlighted how a long-standing, top-down commitment—whether through a stated corporate purpose or a deeply embedded code of conduct—is essential for embedding integrity into the corporate culture.
Ultimately, navigating the fractured world is not just a test of strategy but a test of character. Ethical leadership, grounded in purpose and foresight, is no longer a soft skill but the ultimate competitive advantage for building resilient organizations and creating sustainable value in a fragmented world.
Opening of the Colloquium
Introduction to the 14th Colloquium
Address to the 14th Colloquium by Dr Reuel Khosa
Key Note Presentations
Facilitated panel discussion
- Paul Munter
- Former Chief Accountant, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission
- Subrata Basu
- General Manager, Tata Sustainability Group
- Bruce Thomas
- Finance Executive: Reporting, Nedbank
- Alan Johnson
- Moderator
Glossary of terms used during the Colloquium
Term | Definition (as derived from the Source Context) |
AICPA | The American Institute of CPAs, described as a key support member for the colloquium and the largest accounting body in the world with nearly 600,000 members. |
Combined Assurance | An approach where internal audit, compliance, and risk teams work together to provide oversight on key organizational risks. Stacey Schabel notes that internal audit can help drive this by creating a plan that shows boards how each function is covering top risks. |
Fractured World | A term used to describe the current global environment, characterized by increased trade tensions, punitive tariffs, cyber incursions, shifting alliances, and geopolitical decisions overriding economic and sustainability concerns. |
Geo-economic Risk | Defined by Michelle Mullen as “the intersection of geopolitical tension and economic consequence.” It is presented as a strategic imperative for all business leaders in the current environment. |
Good Governance Academy (GGA) | A not-for-profit initiative that brings together academia, business, civil society, and regulators to share governance knowledge and make governance education accessible to everyone. |
Hard Trends | Long-term, foundational shifts that are not going away. Michelle Mullen identifies three key hard trends: shifting demographics, technology, and regulation, as distinct from more momentary “soft trends” like specific tariff disputes. |
Holistic Risk Management | An approach to risk assessment that is integrated and organization-wide, rather than being handled in a series of disconnected silos. Paul Munter stressed this as a critical component of effective governance. |
IFAC (International Federation of Accountants) | A global organization representing more than 180 professional accountancy bodies and over 3 million accountants worldwide. It works to strengthen the global profession and advance high-quality international standards. |
Institute of Internal Auditors (IIA) | A global professional organization for internal auditors, represented at the colloquium by its Global Senior Vice Chair, Stacey Schabel. Its foundation produces the “Risk in Focus” report. |
Integrated Thinking | A mindset where organizations connect the dots between emerging challenges and opportunities by adopting a strategic approach and clearly understanding the business model and its associated risks. Michelle Mullen highlights this as a key outcome of a structured approach to monitoring uncertainty. |
Stewardship | As defined by Dr. Reuel Khosa, leadership that goes beyond mere management to summon “moral imagination and strategic resolve.” It involves preempting disruption, embedding resilience, adapting with agility, and championing purpose over just profit. |
Sustainable Value Creation | An outcome-focused approach to governance that aims to create long-term value rooted in ethical leadership and institutional integrity, as opposed to short-termism or a mere compliance exercise. |
Ubuntu | A profound African philosophy invoked by Dr. Reuel Khosa, which reminds us that “our humanity is bound up in the humanity of others.” In a business context, it suggests that interdependence is wisdom, not weakness. |
Weaponizing of Tariffs | A phrase used by Professor Mervyn King to describe the recent trend of using trade tariffs not for purely economic reasons but as tools to achieve geopolitical or non-trade objectives, leading to increased costs and trade tensions. |
